MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
64-68 | Road
9
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
51-81 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeffrey Springs
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 7-8 | 5.12 | 1.33 | 96.2 | 81 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 3-11 | 6.02 | 1.48 | 113.2 | 89 |
7-8
W-L
3-11
5.12 Ldr
ERA
6.02
1.33 Ldr
WHIP
1.48
96.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 113.2
81
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 89
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
51%
ATHLETICS
49%
▲ Edge: +5.30% (ATH)
TWINS
58%
Book Odds: -140
ATHLETICS
43%
Book Odds: +131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.1 (Under)
Over 11.0
32%
Under 11.0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.9%
MIN By 3-4 runs
14.4%
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.9%
ATH By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 6.20
Athletics
4.3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 6.20
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
MIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
MIN @ ATH
2 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
MIN @ ATH
9 - 6
Jul 26, 2026
ATH @ MIN
8 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
ATH @ MIN
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.719
187
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.5% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Walks (L5)
+56.1% more
Athletics: 3.5
vs
Minnesota: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.0% more
Athletics: 10.8
vs
Minnesota: 8.3
Hits (L5)
+16.0% more
Athletics: 8.5
vs
Minnesota: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.6
9
ATH Score
4.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.4
12.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 8.3
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 12.5
15.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -150 / +124
→
-140 / +131
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 10
→
11
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
MIN
ATH
MIN
ML
59%
95-67
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
ATS
52%
84-78
59%
95-67
50%
81-80
59%
95-66
TTL
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-9
42%
66-90-5
53%
80-72-9
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