CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
76-56 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
69-63 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 6-11 | 4.58 | 1.30 | 143.1 | 143 |
| Merrill Kelly | 8-11 | 5.37 | 1.52 | 129.0 | 84 |
6-11
W-L
8-11
4.58 Ldr
ERA
5.37
1.30 Ldr
WHIP
1.52
143.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
129.0
143 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
84
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
69%
DIAMONDBACKS
31%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (CHC)
CUBS
58%
Book Odds: -140
DIAMONDBACKS
44%
Book Odds: +130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.1
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 9.0
83%
Under 9.0
17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
13.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
7.6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
5.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 13.1
A
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.374
OPS
▲
.720
0
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+66.8% more
Chicago: 2.8
vs
Arizona: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+33.0% more
Chicago: 5.2
vs
Arizona: 3.5
Total Bases (L5)
+22.7% more
Chicago: 20.8
vs
Arizona: 16.0
Hits (L5)
+13.0% more
Chicago: 11.0
vs
Arizona: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
7.6
7
ARI Score
5.5
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 11.0
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.3
6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 20.8
5.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.2
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109
→
-140 / +130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHC
ARI
CHC
ML
54%
87-74
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
51%
82-79
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-71
47%
75-85-1
TTL
52%
80-73-8
52%
81-74-6
49%
73-77-9
46%
72-83-6
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