Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Rayo vs Alavés Rayo vs Alavés

RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Thu, Aug 20 • 3:00 PM ET
Estadio Municipal de Butarque

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYO
61%
DRAW
21%
ALAVÉS
18%
▲ Edge: +26.80% (Alavés)
40% Book Odds: +149
DRAW 32% Book Odds: +212
31% Book Odds: +225
Book Implied: 40.20% / 32.10% / 30.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 2.0 52%
Under 2.0 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Rayo)
RayoRayo (-0.2) 0 AlavésAlavés (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.2% / 51.8%

Shots (On Goal)

8(3) / 15(3)

Corners

9 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

26.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

36.9%

Alavés By 1 goal

11.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.10
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.10
0
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Rayo Vallecano Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Rayo Vallecano (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u2.0 Push
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 Rayo vs Alavés 1 - 1
Oct 26, 2025 Rayo vs Alavés 1 - 0
Mar 29, 2025 Alavés vs Rayo 0 - 2
Oct 26, 2024 Rayo vs Alavés 1 - 0
Mar 10, 2024 Alavés vs Rayo 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Alavés: 1.0 vs Rayo: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
Alavés: 3.0 vs Rayo: 7.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 1.0 vs Rayo: 0.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Alavés: 3.0 vs Rayo: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Alavés Score 1.0 1
Rayo Vallecano Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Alavés (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Rayo Vallecano Share: 66.7% Alavés Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Rayo Vallecano
Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
Alavés
ML
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
ATS
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
TTL
33% 2-4-1
50% 3-3-1
33% 2-4-1
27% 1-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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