Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Atlético vs Málaga Atlético vs Málaga

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

5-1-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Wed, Aug 19 • 3:00 PM ET
Riyadh Air Metropolitano

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-3-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATLÉTICO
35%
DRAW
31%
MÁLAGA
35%
▲ Edge: +35.70% (Málaga)
67% Book Odds: -200
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +365
14% Book Odds: +600
Book Implied: 66.70% / 21.50% / 14.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 51%
Under 2.75 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
MÁLAGA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Málaga)
AtléticoAtlético (-1) 0 MálagaMálaga (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.3% / 46.7%

Shots (On Goal)

15(6) / 5(1)

Corners

6 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Málaga 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Málaga)

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

15.9%

Málaga By 1 goal

21.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.90
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.90
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Loss
52% Win Prob
B
Sim Atlético Madrid Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Málaga (+1) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim Málaga (-1) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 Atlético vs Málaga 2 - 0
Feb 10, 2018 Málaga vs Atlético 0 - 1
Sep 16, 2017 Atlético vs Málaga 1 - 0
Apr 1, 2017 Málaga vs Atlético 0 - 2
Oct 29, 2016 Atlético vs Málaga 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Málaga: 2.0 vs Atlético: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Málaga: 1.0 vs Atlético: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +71.4% more
Málaga: 7.0 vs Atlético: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Málaga Score 1.0 0
Atlético Madrid Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlético Madrid (Home) vs Málaga (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético Madrid Share: 50.0% Málaga Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético Madrid
Málaga
Atlético Madrid
Málaga
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
TTL
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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