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PACHUCAPACHUCA

4-4-6  |  Home

2
FINAL
Mon, Aug 17 • 11:06 PM ET
Estadio Hidalgo

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-4-6  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
PACHUCA
35%
DRAW
31%
PUEBLA
35%
▲ Edge: +33.10% (Puebla)
63% Book Odds: -167
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +313
17% Book Odds: +490
Book Implied: 62.50% / 24.20% / 16.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 50%
Under 2.75 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Puebla)
PachucaPachuca (-1) 0 PueblaPuebla (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.9% / 44.1%

Shots (On Goal)

22(4) / 12(5)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Pachuca By 1 goal

21.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

15.9%

Puebla By 1 goal

21.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.90
0
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Win
47% Win Prob
B
Sim Pachuca Loss
80% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Puebla (+1) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Pachuca (-1) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 17, 2026 Pachuca vs Puebla 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Puebla: 1.0 vs Pachuca: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Puebla: 5.0 vs Pachuca: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Pachuca: 6.0 vs Puebla: 12.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Pachuca: 1.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 3
Pachuca Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Pachuca (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pachuca Share: 50.0% Puebla Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pachuca
Puebla
Pachuca
Puebla
ML
29% 4-10
36% 5-9
31% 4-9
50% 7-7
ATS
72% 9-3-1
68% 7-3-3
25% 3-9-1
63% 6-3-4
TTL
55% 6-5-3
38% 5-8-1
30% 3-7-3
50% 7-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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