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NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

LEÓNLEÓN

5-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
18%
DRAW
21%
LEÓN
61%
▲ Edge: +5.50% (León)
35% Book Odds: +185
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +252
40% Book Odds: +151
Book Implied: 35.10% / 28.40% / 39.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (León)
NecaxaNecaxa (0) 0 LeónLeón (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.2% / 38.8%

Shots (On Goal)

25(8) / 16(7)

Corners

7 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around León -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

León By 1 goal

26.1%

León By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.20
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI León Win
45% Win Prob
C
Sim Necaxa Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI León (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Necaxa (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 17, 2026 Necaxa vs León 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 León vs Necaxa 1 - 3
Feb 28, 2026 León vs Necaxa 2 - 1
Jan 13, 2026 Necaxa vs León 0 - 2
Aug 23, 2025 León vs Necaxa 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
León: 0.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
León: 3.0 vs Necaxa: 9.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
León: 3.0 vs Necaxa: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
León: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 2.0 2
Necaxa Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Necaxa (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 33.3% León Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
León
Necaxa
León
ML
40% 4-6
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
30% 3-7
ATS
60% 6-4
57% 4-3-3
60% 6-4
29% 2-5-3
TTL
60% 6-4
37% 3-6
90% 9-1
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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