CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
62-69 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
69-62 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Bratt
#60 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 6-8 | 4.07 | 1.40 | 139.1 | 108 |
| Mitch Bratt | 1-2 | 4.17 | 1.47 | 36.2 | 25 |
6-8
W-L
1-2
4.07 Ldr
ERA
4.17
1.40 Ldr
WHIP
1.47
139.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
36.2
108 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
25
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
50%
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (CIN)
REDS
43%
Book Odds: +131
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 8.5
59%
Under 8.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.3%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Arizona
4.7
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.7% more
Arizona: 8.0
vs
Cincinnati: 6.5
Hits (L5)
+17.3% more
Arizona: 10.3
vs
Cincinnati: 8.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.9% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.6
3
ARI Score
4.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 8.8
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.5
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 15.9
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.0
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+131 / -140
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CIN
ARI
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
81-73-5
49%
73-77-9
54%
83-72-5
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