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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

63-69  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

80-51  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Lake Bachar
STARTING PITCHER

Lake Bachar

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Blake Snell
STARTING PITCHER

Blake Snell

#7 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lake Bachar 1-2 3.75 1.11 69.2 73
Blake Snell 1-1 3.60 1.13 15.0 20
1-2 W-L 1-1
3.75 ERA Ldr 3.60
1.11 Ldr WHIP 1.13
69.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 15.0
73 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 20
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
47%
📊
DODGERS
53%
▲ Edge: +18.70% (PIT)
PIRATES 28% Book Odds: +253
DODGERS 73% Book Odds: -275
Book Implied: 28.30% / 73.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5 53%
Under 8.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

54.0%

Dodgers Cover

46.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

12.4%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.0%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
4.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.4
C
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 PIT @ LAD 0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026 PIT @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026 PIT @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.734
OPS
▲ .762
186
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +77.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.4 vs Pittsburgh: 2.5
Hits (L5) +12.4% more
Los Angeles: 8.0 vs Pittsburgh: 7.2
Home Runs (L5) +12.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Pittsburgh: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +9.7% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.2 0
LAD Score 4.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 7.2 6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 11.9 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 11.9 6.0 / 2.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.5 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +209 / -259 → +253 / -275 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
13%TICKETS87%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PIT
LAD
PIT
ML
56% 92-73
52% 82-77
48% 79-87
52% 85-78
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 86-73
43% 72-94
50% 81-82
TTL
48% 77-82-6
47% 72-81-6
44% 70-90-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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