MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
63-68 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
71-60 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 7-4 | 4.62 | 1.25 | 103.1 | 71 |
| Walker Buehler | 7-6 | 4.79 | 1.39 | 120.1 | 104 |
7-4
W-L
7-6
4.62 Ldr
ERA
4.79
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.39
103.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 120.1
71
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
37%
PADRES
63%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (SD)
TWINS
42%
Book Odds: +138
PADRES
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 8.5
64%
Under 8.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
San Diego
5.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
MIN @ SD
1 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
MIN @ SD
5 - 7
Aug 21, 2026
MIN @ SD
2 - 6
Aug 31, 2025
SD @ MIN
2 - 7
Aug 30, 2025
SD @ MIN
12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
187
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.0%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Minnesota: 40.3%
Batting Avg (Season)
+8.3%
San Diego: 32.8%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.5
1
SD Score
5.9
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.0
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 9.4
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 13.8
20.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.3
8.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+138 / -148
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIN
SD
MIN
ML
51%
85-83
52%
84-78
51%
85-82
50%
80-81
ATS
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
59%
95-66
TTL
51%
82-80-6
51%
78-75-9
54%
86-74-6
53%
80-72-9
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