CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
75-56 | Road
19
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
62-69 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 8-9 | 3.77 | 1.09 | 143.1 | 140 |
| Bryce Miller | 4-7 | 3.71 | 1.04 | 89.2 | 87 |
8-9
W-L
4-7
3.77
ERA
Ldr 3.71
1.09
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
143.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
89.2
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
87
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
72%
MARINERS
28%
▲ Edge: +18.40% (CHC)
CUBS
54%
Book Odds: -118
MARINERS
48%
Book Odds: +110
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.4 (Over)
Over 7.5
79%
Under 7.5
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
19.4%
SEA By 1-2 runs
11.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Seattle
4.1
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
C
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
A
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CHC @ SEA
19 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CHC @ SEA
4 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CHC @ SEA
5 - 6
Jun 22, 2025
SEA @ CHC
14 - 6
Jun 21, 2025
SEA @ CHC
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.374
OPS
▲
.693
0
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+50.9% more
Chicago: 2.2
vs
Seattle: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+23.5% more
Chicago: 16.6
vs
Seattle: 12.7
Home Runs (Season)
+18200.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+360.0% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
6.8
19
SEA Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.9
7.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.2
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.9
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 16.6
10.0 / 29.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.4
2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-118 / +110
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CHC
SEA
CHC
ML
50%
81-81
58%
93-68
52%
85-77
51%
82-79
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-67
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-71-10
46%
72-83-6
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