CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
65-66 | Road
7
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
50-80 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Foster Griffin
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Griffin | 14-4 | 3.18 | 1.11 | 144.1 | 131 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 12-6 | 4.70 | 1.26 | 118.2 | 69 |
14-4
W-L
12-6
3.18 Ldr
ERA
4.70
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
144.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
118.2
131 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
69
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
55%
ROCKIES
45%
▲ Edge: +4.10% (COL)
GUARDIANS
61%
Book Odds: -158
ROCKIES
41%
Book Odds: +147
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +3.7 (Under)
Over 11.0
23%
Under 11.0
77%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
3.3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rockies
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
A
Sim
o11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CLE @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CLE @ COL
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
CLE @ COL
9 - 1
Jul 30, 2025
COL @ CLE
0 - 5
Jul 29, 2025
COL @ CLE
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.696
OPS
▲
.739
162
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+37.8% more
Cleveland: 4.3
vs
Colorado: 2.7
Hits (L5)
+19.3% more
Cleveland: 9.1
vs
Colorado: 7.3
Errors (L5)
+82.0% more
Colorado: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+16.0% more
Colorado: 1.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
7
COL Score
3.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.1
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.9
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 13.1
10.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -175 / +144
→
-158 / +147
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CLE
COL
CLE
ML
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
49%
80-82
ATS
60%
97-64
58%
93-68
52%
83-78
59%
95-67
TTL
60%
93-62-6
55%
88-71-2
50%
77-78-6
43%
69-90-2
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