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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

61-69  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

58-74  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Waguespack
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Waguespack

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Waguespack 1-1 1.95 0.83 27.2 16
Daniel Lynch IV 4-4 2.83 1.02 54.0 41
1-1 W-L 4-4
1.95 Ldr ERA 2.83
0.83 Ldr WHIP 1.02
27.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 54.0
16 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 41
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
75%
📊
ROYALS
25%
▲ Edge: +22.90% (DET)
TIGERS 52% Book Odds: -108
ROYALS 50% Book Odds: +100
Book Implied: 51.90% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

77.3%

Royals Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.4%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

10.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.7
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
2.7
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
Detroit: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Walks (L5) +34.0% more
Detroit: 3.7 vs Kansas City: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +13.7% more
Detroit: 7.4 vs Kansas City: 6.4
Home Runs (Season) +6.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.7 7
KC Score 2.7 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 5.8 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 7.4 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 9.4 20.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.7 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -103 → -108 / +100 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
67%TICKETS33%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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