WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
61-71 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
67-64 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Kent
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Kent | 0-1 | 9.39 | 2.48 | 7.2 | 9 |
| Janson Junk | 6-8 | 4.37 | 1.36 | 92.2 | 66 |
0-1
W-L
6-8
9.39
ERA
Ldr 4.37
2.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.36
7.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 92.2
9
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 66
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
37%
MARLINS
63%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (MIA)
NATIONALS
41%
Book Odds: +146
MARLINS
61%
Book Odds: -157
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 8.0
66%
Under 8.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.1
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Miami
5.6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Marlins
Win
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
Marlins
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.7
A
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Miami: 1.2
vs
Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+45.0% more
Miami: 11.8
vs
Washington: 8.1
Hits (L5)
+31.0% more
Miami: 7.2
vs
Washington: 5.5
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
Washington: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.1
2
MIA Score
5.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 5.5
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 9.1
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 8.1
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.0
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+146 / -157
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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