TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
77-53 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
63-68 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 12-4 | 3.05 | 1.14 | 141.2 | 83 |
| Shane Baz | 4-13 | 4.02 | 1.35 | 145.2 | 132 |
12-4
W-L
4-13
3.05 Ldr
ERA
4.02
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.35
141.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 145.2
83
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 132
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
46%
ORIOLES
54%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (BAL)
RAYS
50%
Book Odds: -101
ORIOLES
52%
Book Odds: -106
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
37%
Under 9.0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.1%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5.20
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5.20
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
B
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Baltimore: 1.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+57.8% more
Baltimore: 9.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.9
Home Runs (Season)
+17.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Total Bases (L5)
+8.9% more
Baltimore: 13.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
3
BAL Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.1
2.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 5.9
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.0
6.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.2
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
-101 / -106
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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