ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
66-66 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
73-58 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 10-4 | 3.24 | 1.31 | 122.1 | 111 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 16-4 | 2.51 | 1.22 | 161.2 | 187 |
10-4
W-L
16-4
3.24
ERA
Ldr 2.51
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
122.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 161.2
111
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 187
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
42%
PHILLIES
58%
▲ Edge: +8.90% (STL)
CARDINALS
33%
Book Odds: +200
PHILLIES
68%
Book Odds: -216
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 8.0
49%
Under 8.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
4.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.691
OPS
▲
.724
167
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+64.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+38.4% more
Philadelphia: 11.9
vs
St. Louis: 8.6
Walks (L5)
+30.0% more
Philadelphia: 2.9
vs
St. Louis: 2.2
Total Bases (L5)
+23.6% more
Philadelphia: 17.9
vs
St. Louis: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.4
4
PHI Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.9 / 8.6
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.9
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 14.5
16.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -199
→
+200 / -216
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
STL
PHI
STL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
85-74
49%
80-84
52%
84-77
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
89-70
51%
83-81
53%
85-76
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-10
51%
78-76-9
50%
76-75-10
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