Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Padres MIN @ SD

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

63-67  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

70-60  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Dean Kremer
STARTING PITCHER

Dean Kremer

#13 | Starting Pitcher
@
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dean Kremer 2-4 5.40 1.18 53.1 53
Casey Mize 5-7 3.18 1.07 102.0 95
2-4 W-L 5-7
5.40 ERA Ldr 3.18
1.18 WHIP Ldr 1.07
53.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 102.0
53 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 95
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
30%
📊
PADRES
70%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (SD)
TWINS 44% Book Odds: +129
PADRES 58% Book Odds: -139
Book Implied: 43.70% / 58.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 74%
Under 8.0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (San Diego)
TwinsMIN (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
San Diego Padres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

28.3%

Padres Cover

71.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

MIN By 1-2 runs

12.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

7.1%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
6.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres Win
70% Win Prob
B
Sim Twins Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 MIN @ SD 1 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 MIN @ SD 5 - 7
Aug 21, 2026 MIN @ SD 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2025 SD @ MIN 2 - 7
Aug 30, 2025 SD @ MIN 12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.720
OPS
▲ .925
187 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +86.0% more
San Diego: 1.2 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
San Diego: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Total Bases (L5) +25.3% more
San Diego: 12.7 vs Minnesota: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.1 5
SD Score 6.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.1 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 9.6 3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 10.1 15.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -169 → +129 / -139 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
19%TICKETS81%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
80%TICKETS20%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIN
SD
MIN
ML
51% 85-83
52% 84-78
51% 85-82
50% 80-81
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 95-67
55% 92-75
59% 95-66
TTL
51% 82-80-6
51% 78-75-9
54% 86-74-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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