CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
64-66 | Road
4
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
50-79 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Hughes
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 4-13 | 4.01 | 1.15 | 150.1 | 117 |
| Gabriel Hughes | 0-4 | 6.69 | 1.38 | 37.2 | 33 |
4-13
W-L
0-4
4.01 Ldr
ERA
6.69
1.15 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
150.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
37.2
117 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
33
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
47%
ROCKIES
53%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (COL)
GUARDIANS
56%
Book Odds: -129
ROCKIES
46%
Book Odds: +120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.3 (Under)
Over 11.0
30%
Under 11.0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.7%
COL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
A
Sim
o11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CLE @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CLE @ COL
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
CLE @ COL
9 - 1
Jul 30, 2025
COL @ CLE
0 - 5
Jul 29, 2025
COL @ CLE
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.696
OPS
▲
.739
162
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+123.0% more
Colorado: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+11.1% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.7% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+4.3%
Colorado: 73.9%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.2
4
COL Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 10.1
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.9
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 14.6
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.0
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119
→
-129 / +120
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CLE
COL
CLE
ML
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
49%
80-82
ATS
60%
97-64
58%
93-68
52%
83-78
59%
95-67
TTL
60%
93-62-6
55%
88-71-2
50%
77-78-6
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …