PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
63-68 | Road
3
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
79-51 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 2-5 | 4.78 | 1.20 | 64.0 | 72 |
| Tarik Skubal | 7-7 | 2.85 | 0.96 | 113.2 | 135 |
2-5
W-L
7-7
4.78
ERA
Ldr 2.85
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 0.96
64.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 113.2
72
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 135
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
28%
DODGERS
72%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (LAD)
PIRATES
30%
Book Odds: +238
DODGERS
72%
Book Odds: -258
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
11.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
6.3%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.0%
LAD By 3-4 runs
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
5.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers
Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
PIT @ LAD
0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026
PIT @ LAD
3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
PIT @ LAD
4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.734
OPS
▲
.762
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+27.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.2
Home Runs (L5)
+14.6% more
Los Angeles: 1.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+12.9% more
Los Angeles: 15.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.4
Hits (L5)
+10.7% more
Los Angeles: 8.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.2
3
LAD Score
5.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.7
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 10.3
10.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 13.4
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.2
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +215 / -245
→
+238 / -258
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PIT
LAD
PIT
ML
56%
92-73
52%
82-77
48%
79-87
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
98-67
54%
86-73
43%
72-94
50%
81-82
TTL
48%
77-82-6
47%
72-81-6
44%
70-90-6
50%
79-78-6
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