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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

61-68  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

57-74  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Drew Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Anderson

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Anderson 4-4 4.01 1.30 76.1 87
Michael Wacha 6-8 3.58 1.15 155.2 120
4-4 W-L 6-8
4.01 ERA Ldr 3.58
1.30 WHIP Ldr 1.15
76.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 155.2
87 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 120
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
70%
📊
ROYALS
30%
▲ Edge: +19.30% (DET)
TIGERS 51% Book Odds: -104
ROYALS 51% Book Odds: -104
Book Implied: 51% / 51%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 8.5 63%
Under 8.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

72.6%

Royals Cover

27.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.0%

KC By 1-2 runs

12.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.1
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
3.7
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Royals Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +63.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Walks (L5) +30.7% more
Detroit: 4.6 vs Kansas City: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5) +21.4% more
Detroit: 7.2 vs Kansas City: 5.6
Home Runs (Season) +6.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.1 1
KC Score 3.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.2 5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 7.2 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.9 / 10.6 12.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -104 / -106 → -104 / -104
47%TICKETS53%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
27%TICKETS73%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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