Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Red Sox SF @ BOS

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

52-77  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

70-59  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Blade Tidwell
STARTING PITCHER

Blade Tidwell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Patrick Sandoval
STARTING PITCHER

Patrick Sandoval

#43 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Blade Tidwell 0-0 4.33 1.22 27.0 20
Patrick Sandoval 1-2 4.76 1.85 34.0 35
0-0 W-L 1-2
4.33 Ldr ERA 4.76
1.22 Ldr WHIP 1.85
27.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 34.0
20 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 35
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
69%
📊
RED SOX
31%
▲ Edge: +34.30% (SF)
GIANTS 35% Book Odds: +189
RED SOX 67% Book Odds: -204
Book Implied: 34.60% / 67.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.0 67%
Under 8.0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

69.1%

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.4%

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
3.9
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 SF @ BOS 2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2025 BOS @ SF 5 - 9
Jun 21, 2025 BOS @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.706 ▲
OPS
.409
178 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +75.8% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5) +66.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9 vs Boston: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +40.1% more
San Francisco: 9.4 vs Boston: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.9 2
BOS Score 3.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 6.9 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 9.4 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 18.2 / 11.9 10.0 / 14.0
Walks 5.3 / 3.2 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +179 / -201 → +189 / -204
12%TICKETS88%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
16%TICKETS84%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SF
BOS
SF
ML
50% 80-80
49% 79-81
47% 76-87
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 93-67
62% 100-60
48% 79-84
52% 83-77
TTL
46% 72-83-5
55% 82-68-10
47% 74-83-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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