Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Astros ATH @ HOU

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

50-80  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

65-65  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Lopez 5-4 5.22 1.53 88.0 81
Hunter Brown 3-3 3.67 1.30 68.2 72
5-4 W-L 3-3
5.22 ERA Ldr 3.67
1.53 WHIP Ldr 1.30
88.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 68.2
81 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 72
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
34%
📊
ASTROS
66%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (ATH)
ATHLETICS 32% Book Odds: +217
ASTROS 70% Book Odds: -235
Book Implied: 31.50% / 70.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 64%
Under 8.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Houston)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Houston Astros (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

33.5%

Astros Cover

66.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

ATH By 1-2 runs

14.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

8.6%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.9
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
5.6
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Astros Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.719 ▲
OPS
.582
194 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +62.2% more
Houston: 8.7 vs Athletics: 5.4
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Houston: 1.1 vs Athletics: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +23.5% more
Houston: 11.4 vs Athletics: 9.2
Hits (L5) +8.8% more
Houston: 7.3 vs Athletics: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.9 4
HOU Score 5.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 6.7 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 5.4 8.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 9.2 11.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.5 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +205 / -233 → +217 / -235
12%TICKETS88%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
19%TICKETS81%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATH
HOU
ATH
ML
50% 81-82
59% 95-67
47% 77-87
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 91-72
52% 84-78
55% 90-74
50% 81-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
54% 84-73-5
45% 69-86-9
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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