TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
76-53 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
63-67 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane McClanahan
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 9-6 | 3.25 | 1.12 | 102.1 | 94 |
| Brandon Young | 9-3 | 3.52 | 1.35 | 117.2 | 96 |
9-6
W-L
9-3
3.25 Ldr
ERA
3.52
1.12 Ldr
WHIP
1.35
102.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 117.2
94
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 96
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
45%
ORIOLES
55%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (BAL)
RAYS
55%
Book Odds: -124
ORIOLES
46%
Book Odds: +116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 8.5
44%
Under 8.5
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.1%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
4.2
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.0% more
Baltimore: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.1% more
Baltimore: 9.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Walks (L5)
+35.2% more
Baltimore: 2.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.8
Home Runs (Season)
+17.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.7
2
BAL Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.1
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 6.8
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 11.5
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.4 / 1.8
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -128 / +116
→
-124 / +116
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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