ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
66-65 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
72-58 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Mathews | 0-1 | 3.00 | 1.56 | 9.0 | 10 |
| Andrew Painter | 2-8 | 6.43 | 1.55 | 85.1 | 71 |
0-1
W-L
2-8
3.00 Ldr
ERA
6.43
1.56
WHIP
Ldr 1.55
9.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 85.1
10
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 71
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
58%
PHILLIES
42%
▲ Edge: +17.80% (STL)
CARDINALS
41%
Book Odds: +147
PHILLIES
61%
Book Odds: -158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 9.0
53%
Under 9.0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.1%
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Philadelphia
4.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
A
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.691
OPS
▲
.724
167
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+68.3% more
St. Louis: 1.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+21.2% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.0% more
St. Louis: 10.3
vs
Philadelphia: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.1
3
PHI Score
4.2
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.4 / 9.4
15.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 10.3
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 15.2
24.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.3
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+147 / -158
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
STL
PHI
STL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
85-74
49%
80-84
52%
84-77
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
89-70
51%
83-81
53%
85-76
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-10
51%
78-76-9
50%
76-75-10
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