WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
61-70 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
66-64 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 2-7 | 5.80 | 1.36 | 71.1 | 72 |
| Eury Perez | 6-9 | 3.23 | 1.11 | 122.2 | 133 |
2-7
W-L
6-9
5.80
ERA
Ldr 3.23
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
71.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 122.2
72
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 133
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
49%
MARLINS
51%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (WSH)
NATIONALS
37%
Book Odds: +168
MARLINS
64%
Book Odds: -181
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
70%
Under 7.5
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
13.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Miami
4.9
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+8.3% more
Miami: 7.3
vs
Washington: 6.8
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.3%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Strikeouts (L5)
+52.3% more
Washington: 10.6
vs
Miami: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.8
2
MIA Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 6.8
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.1 / 10.6
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 10.2
14.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -177
→
+168 / -181
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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