ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
75-55 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
81-49 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 8-7 | 3.15 | 1.19 | 111.1 | 83 |
| Logan Henderson | 7-2 | 2.70 | 0.87 | 63.1 | 75 |
8-7
W-L
7-2
3.15
ERA
Ldr 2.70
1.19
WHIP
Ldr 0.87
111.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
63.1
83 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
75
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
31%
BREWERS
69%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (MIL)
BRAVES
41%
Book Odds: +147
BREWERS
61%
Book Odds: -158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 8.0
64%
Under 8.0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.3%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
5.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
ATL @ MIL
4 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 2
Jun 21, 2026
MIL @ ATL
9 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
MIL @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.757
▲
OPS
.743
1
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15300.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+82.1% more
Milwaukee: 4.1
vs
Atlanta: 2.2
Home Runs (L5)
+65.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+48.7% more
Milwaukee: 14.4
vs
Atlanta: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.3
1
MIL Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 7.4
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.2
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 9.7
13.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +127 / -154
→
+147 / -158
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
62%
101-61
46%
77-90
52%
84-78
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
96-71
48%
78-84
52%
87-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-77-8
49%
76-80-11
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