PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
63-67 | Road
4
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
78-51 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 6-8 | 4.23 | 1.37 | 121.1 | 108 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 12-7 | 2.60 | 0.89 | 145.1 | 136 |
6-8
W-L
12-7
4.23
ERA
Ldr 2.60
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 0.89
121.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 145.1
108
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 136
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
29%
DODGERS
71%
▲ Edge: +1% (LAD)
PIRATES
32%
Book Odds: +212
DODGERS
70%
Book Odds: -229
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.1%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.4%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
5.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Dodgers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
A
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
PIT @ LAD
0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026
PIT @ LAD
3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
PIT @ LAD
4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.734
OPS
▲
.762
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+35.2% more
Los Angeles: 17.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.0
Hits (L5)
+29.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.6
Home Runs (L5)
+19.3% more
Los Angeles: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.5
Home Runs (Season)
+9.7% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.1
4
LAD Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 7.6
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.5
14.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 13.0
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.9
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +199 / -246
→
+212 / -229
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PIT
LAD
PIT
ML
56%
92-73
52%
82-77
48%
79-87
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
98-67
54%
86-73
43%
72-94
50%
81-82
TTL
48%
77-82-6
47%
72-81-6
44%
70-90-6
50%
79-78-6
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