MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
63-66 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
69-60 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Connor Prielipp
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp | 3-6 | 5.34 | 1.38 | 87.2 | 94 |
| Randy Vasquez | 8-6 | 4.30 | 1.38 | 111.0 | 71 |
3-6
W-L
8-6
5.34
ERA
Ldr 4.30
1.38
WHIP
1.38
87.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 111.0
94 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
71
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
36%
PADRES
64%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (SD)
TWINS
48%
Book Odds: +107
PADRES
54%
Book Odds: -116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 8.0
70%
Under 8.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIN By 1-2 runs
14.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
8.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.3
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
San Diego
5.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
MIN @ SD
1 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
MIN @ SD
5 - 7
Aug 21, 2026
MIN @ SD
2 - 6
Aug 31, 2025
SD @ MIN
2 - 7
Aug 30, 2025
SD @ MIN
12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
187
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+79.0% more
San Diego: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+73.0% more
San Diego: 0.8
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.3
2
SD Score
5.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.6
9.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 9.9
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 13.2
13.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.2
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -143
→
+107 / -116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIN
SD
MIN
ML
51%
85-83
52%
84-78
51%
85-82
50%
80-81
ATS
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
59%
95-66
TTL
51%
82-80-6
51%
78-75-9
54%
86-74-6
53%
80-72-9
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat