CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
61-68 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
68-61 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 3-2 | 4.52 | 1.42 | 71.2 | 57 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 12-4 | 2.71 | 1.21 | 149.1 | 106 |
3-2
W-L
12-4
4.52
ERA
Ldr 2.71
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.21
71.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.1
57
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 106
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
37%
DIAMONDBACKS
63%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (ARI)
REDS
42%
Book Odds: +136
DIAMONDBACKS
59%
Book Odds: -146
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Arizona
4.9
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+55.4% more
Arizona: 13.9
vs
Cincinnati: 8.9
Hits (L5)
+41.8% more
Arizona: 8.2
vs
Cincinnati: 5.8
Home Runs (L5)
+20.0% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.9% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.6
0
ARI Score
4.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 5.8
15.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.7
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 8.9
22.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.3
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+136 / -146
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CIN
ARI
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
81-73-5
49%
73-77-9
54%
83-72-5
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