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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

61-67  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 8:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

56-74  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Melton 7-1 1.71 0.97 84.1 73
Noah Cameron 7-8 4.16 1.22 138.1 126
7-1 W-L 7-8
1.71 Ldr ERA 4.16
0.97 Ldr WHIP 1.22
84.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 138.1
73 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 126
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
77%
📊
ROYALS
23%
▲ Edge: +25.40% (DET)
TIGERS 51% Book Odds: -105
ROYALS 51% Book Odds: -103
Book Implied: 51.20% / 50.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.0 58%
Under 8.0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

78.8%

Royals Cover

21.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.1%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.7%

KC By 1-2 runs

10.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.9
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
2.7
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Royals Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.2
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Detroit: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Strikeouts (L5) +21.9% more
Detroit: 8.2 vs Kansas City: 6.4
Home Runs (Season) +6.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.5% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.9 2
KC Score 2.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.3 / 7.7 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 8.2 4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 11.5 22.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.4 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -121 / +101 → -105 / -103 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
76%TICKETS24%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
42%TICKETS58%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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