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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-80  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

65-64  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hayden Wesneski
STARTING PITCHER

Hayden Wesneski

#39 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
J.T. Ginn 8-7 3.53 1.22 127.1 114
Hayden Wesneski 2-1 5.16 1.32 22.2 18
8-7 W-L 2-1
3.53 Ldr ERA 5.16
1.22 Ldr WHIP 1.32
127.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 22.2
114 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 18
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
47%
📊
ASTROS
53%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (ATH)
ATHLETICS 38% Book Odds: +163
ASTROS 64% Book Odds: -176
Book Implied: 38% / 63.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5 58%
Under 8.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

54.0%

Astros Cover

46.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

12.4%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.0%

HOU By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.50
4.6
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.50
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.4
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.719 ▲
OPS
.582
194 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +69.4% more
Houston: 8.5 vs Athletics: 5.0
Home Runs (Season) +97.9% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5) +36.9% more
Athletics: 5.3 vs Houston: 3.3
Runs per Game (Season) +30.4% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.2 0
HOU Score 4.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.6 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 5.0 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 12.3 13.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.3 / 5.3 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -198 → +163 / -176 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
50%TICKETS50%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATH
HOU
ATH
ML
50% 81-82
59% 95-67
47% 77-87
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 91-72
52% 84-78
55% 90-74
50% 81-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
54% 84-73-5
45% 69-86-9
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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