WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
61-69 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
65-64 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brad Lord
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Lord | 5-2 | 4.04 | 1.25 | 62.1 | 57 |
| Ryan Gusto | 0-3 | 4.70 | 1.32 | 53.2 | 49 |
5-2
W-L
0-3
4.04 Ldr
ERA
4.70
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
62.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
53.2
57 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
49
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
59%
MARLINS
41%
▲ Edge: +16.10% (WSH)
NATIONALS
43%
Book Odds: +132
MARLINS
59%
Book Odds: -142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
62%
Under 7.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+61.4% more
Washington: 11.9
vs
Miami: 4.6
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Miami: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.3%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.9
2
MIA Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 5.7
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
4.6 / 11.9
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 9.3
8.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.3
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+132 / -142
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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