Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Red Sox SF @ BOS

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

52-76  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

69-59  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb 8-7 3.50 1.06 139.0 110
Sonny Gray 15-3 2.65 1.15 132.2 117
8-7 W-L 15-3
3.50 ERA Ldr 2.65
1.06 Ldr WHIP 1.15
139.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 132.2
110 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 117
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
67%
📊
RED SOX
33%
▲ Edge: +29.20% (SF)
GIANTS 38% Book Odds: +163
RED SOX 64% Book Odds: -176
Book Implied: 38% / 63.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 64%
Under 7.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

69.1%

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.4%

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
3.5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 SF @ BOS 2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2025 BOS @ SF 5 - 9
Jun 21, 2025 BOS @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.706 ▲
OPS
.409
178 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +75.8% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5) +70.2% more
San Francisco: 1.4 vs Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season) +29.7%
San Francisco: 70.6% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.5 4
BOS Score 3.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 6.9 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.1 3.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 10.4 18.0 / 15.0
Walks 5.4 / 3.4 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +163 / -176
8%TICKETS92%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
8%TICKETS92%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SF
BOS
SF
ML
50% 80-80
49% 79-81
47% 76-87
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 93-67
62% 100-60
48% 79-84
52% 83-77
TTL
46% 72-83-5
55% 82-68-10
47% 74-83-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Yankees' Cam Schlittler Transforms Curveball into Lethal Weapon,…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago
White Sox Turn to Anthony Kay as Opener for Game 2, Aiming to St…
si 3 days, 18 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days ago
Boston Red Sox Owe Roman Anthony $123 Million Despite Another Po…
yahoo 5 days, 23 hours ago