ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
66-64 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
71-58 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Dobbins
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | 3-3 | 3.42 | 1.30 | 50.0 | 49 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 11-5 | 3.23 | 1.15 | 150.1 | 185 |
3-3
W-L
11-5
3.42
ERA
Ldr 3.23
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
50.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 150.1
49
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 185
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
46%
PHILLIES
54%
▲ Edge: +15.50% (STL)
CARDINALS
31%
Book Odds: +227
PHILLIES
71%
Book Odds: -246
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
Over 8.0
49%
Under 8.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
4.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
B
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.691
OPS
▲
.724
167
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.0% more
Philadelphia: 10.1
vs
St. Louis: 8.1
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+6.0%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.8
6
PHI Score
4.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 8.1
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.9
6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 13.3
17.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.5
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +169 / -206
→
+227 / -246
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
STL
PHI
STL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
85-74
49%
80-84
52%
84-77
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
89-70
51%
83-81
53%
85-76
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-10
51%
78-76-9
50%
76-75-10
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