Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Deportivo vs Elche Deportivo vs Elche

DEPORTIVODEPORTIVO

2-4-1  |  Home

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 17 • 3:00 PM ET
Riazor

ELCHEELCHE

1-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
DEPORTIVO
35%
DRAW
31%
ELCHE
35%
▲ Edge: +22.20% (Elche)
43% Book Odds: +131
DRAW 32% Book Odds: +215
28% Book Odds: +260
Book Implied: 43.30% / 31.70% / 27.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 2.25 46%
Under 2.25 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Elche)
DeportivoDeportivo (-0.2) 0 ElcheElche (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

38.8% / 61.2%

Shots (On Goal)

8(3) / 11(6)

Corners

2 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Elche 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Deportivo By 1 goal

21.1%

Deportivo By 2+ goals

15.9%

Elche By 1 goal

21.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1.20
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1.20
0
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
45% Win Prob
C
Sim Deportivo Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Elche (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Deportivo (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.25 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.3 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 17, 2026 Deportivo vs Elche 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Elche: 2.0 vs Deportivo: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Elche: 1.0 vs Deportivo: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
Elche: 7.0 vs Deportivo: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Elche Score 1.0 1
Deportivo Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Deportivo (Home) vs Elche (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Deportivo Share: 50.0% Elche Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Deportivo
Elche
Deportivo
Elche
ML
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
0% 0-7
43% 3-4
ATS
100% 7-0
71% 5-2
0% 0-7
57% 4-3
TTL
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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