WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
61-68 | Road
0
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
63-65 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-4 | 3.72 | 1.33 | 75.0 | 69 |
| Jacob deGrom | 8-8 | 3.95 | 1.17 | 120.2 | 147 |
2-4
W-L
8-8
3.72 Ldr
ERA
3.95
1.33
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
75.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 120.2
69
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 147
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
57%
RANGERS
43%
▲ Edge: +19.40% (WSH)
NATIONALS
37%
Book Odds: +168
RANGERS
64%
Book Odds: -181
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
68%
Under 7.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5.1
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Texas
4.4
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Loss
57% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
WSH @ TEX
0 - 2
Aug 19, 2026
WSH @ TEX
6 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
WSH @ TEX
0 - 5
Jun 8, 2025
TEX @ WSH
4 - 2
Jun 7, 2025
TEX @ WSH
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744
▲
OPS
.713
210
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.6% more
Washington: 1.2
vs
Texas: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.1% more
Washington: 10.4
vs
Texas: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+28.7% more
Washington: 13.5
vs
Texas: 9.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.1% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.1
0
TEX Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.0
6.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 10.4
8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 13.5
13.0 / 1.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.0
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +133 / -160
→
+168 / -181
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
WSH
TEX
WSH
ML
53%
86-76
57%
92-69
57%
91-70
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
92-70
58%
93-68
61%
98-63
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
78-70-14
50%
77-78-6
55%
81-66-14
42%
65-90-6
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