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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

75-53  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

66-61  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Chris Sale
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Sale

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Sale 12-8 2.16 1.02 129.0 160
Anthony Kay 9-5 4.01 1.34 121.1 98
12-8 W-L 9-5
2.16 Ldr ERA 4.01
1.02 Ldr WHIP 1.34
129.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 121.1
160 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 98
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
46%
📊
WHITE SOX
54%
▲ Edge: +3% (CHW)
BRAVES 51% Book Odds: -103
WHITE SOX 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 50.70% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 8.5 44%
Under 8.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Chicago)
BravesATL (-1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

46.0%

White Sox Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

ATL By 1-2 runs

17.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

12.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
4.1
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI White Sox Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim Braves Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATL @ CHW 2 - 0
Jun 10, 2026 ATL @ CHW 1 - 2
Jun 9, 2026 ATL @ CHW 5 - 6
Aug 20, 2025 CHW @ ATL 0 - 1
Aug 19, 2025 CHW @ ATL 10 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Chicago CHW
1
Games Played
1
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.757
OPS
▲ .826
1
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +76.7% more
Chicago: 5.3 vs Atlanta: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +55.0% more
Chicago: 1.1 vs Atlanta: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +44.8% more
Chicago: 14.5 vs Atlanta: 10.0
Hits (L5) +31.2% more
Chicago: 8.8 vs Atlanta: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.7 2
CHW Score 4.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 6.7 1.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 6.2 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 10.0 1.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.3 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +104 → -103 / -105 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
48%TICKETS52%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
ATL
CHW
ATL
ML
49% 81-86
46% 77-90
56% 94-73
54% 90-78
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 96-71
56% 93-74
52% 87-81
TTL
58% 96-69-2
53% 83-73-11
51% 84-81-2
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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