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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-79  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

55-74  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Gage Jump
STARTING PITCHER

Gage Jump

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gage Jump 5-7 4.50 1.45 78.0 85
Randy Dobnak 2-1 1.73 1.30 41.2 25
5-7 W-L 2-1
4.50 ERA Ldr 1.73
1.45 WHIP Ldr 1.30
78.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 41.2
85 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 25
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
44%
📊
ROYALS
56%
ATHLETICS 46% Book Odds: +120
ROYALS 56% Book Odds: -129
Book Implied: 45.50% / 56.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 8.0 40%
Under 8.0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (-1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

56.9%

Royals Cover

43.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

11.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.1
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 6.9
C
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATH @ KC 2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026 ATH @ KC 7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026 ATH @ KC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATH @ KC 5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026 KC @ ATH 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719 ▲
OPS
.718
194 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +45.9% more
Kansas City: 6.6 vs Athletics: 4.6
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Athletics: 24.5%
Errors (L5) +53.0% more
Athletics: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Walks (L5) +44.3% more
Athletics: 4.4 vs Kansas City: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.1 2
KC Score 3.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.4 / 8.9 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 4.6 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 14.0 19.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.4 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143 → +120 / -129 ↓
23%TICKETS77%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
23%TICKETS77%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ATH
KC
ATH
ML
55% 89-72
59% 95-67
56% 90-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 91-70
52% 84-78
58% 93-67
50% 81-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
54% 84-73-5
54% 83-70-7
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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