Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Rays TOR @ TB

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

63-66  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Aug 20 • 1:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

76-51  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Shane Bieber
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Bieber

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shane Bieber 4-2 4.99 1.56 48.2 37
Ian Seymour 9-3 4.11 1.13 96.1 115
4-2 W-L 9-3
4.99 ERA Ldr 4.11
1.56 WHIP Ldr 1.13
48.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 96.1
37 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 115
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
60%
📊
RAYS
40%
▲ Edge: +19.80% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS 40% Book Odds: +150
RAYS 62% Book Odds: -161
Book Implied: 40% / 61.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 (Over)
Over 7.0 72%
Under 7.0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

60.8%

Rays Cover

39.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

16.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
4.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 TOR @ TB 5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 TOR @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026 TOR @ TB 10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026 TB @ TOR 1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 TB @ TOR 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .728
152
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +63.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7 vs Toronto: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +11.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
OPS (Season) +3.6%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 5.2 5
TB Score 4.1 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.4 / 10.3 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 6.8 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 15.3 5.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +150 / -161 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
26%TICKETS74%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58% 95-68
46% 74-87
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 90-71
55% 90-73
49% 79-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 3 hours, 45 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 9 hours, 41 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 9 hours, 56 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 21 hours, 40 minutes ago