SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
52-75 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
62-66 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | 7-12 | 4.31 | 1.30 | 129.1 | 128 |
| Gavin Williams | 11-7 | 3.74 | 1.08 | 149.0 | 190 |
7-12
W-L
11-7
4.31
ERA
Ldr 3.74
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 1.08
129.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.0
128
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 190
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
67%
GUARDIANS
33%
▲ Edge: +31.60% (SF)
GIANTS
36%
Book Odds: +182
GUARDIANS
66%
Book Odds: -196
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 7.0
68%
Under 7.0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
18.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
3.4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants
Loss
67% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
SF @ CLE
2 - 5
Aug 19, 2026
SF @ CLE
1 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
SF @ CLE
1 - 8
Jun 19, 2025
CLE @ SF
1 - 2
Jun 18, 2025
CLE @ SF
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.706
▲
OPS
.696
178
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+90.2% more
San Francisco: 1.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+17.0% more
San Francisco: 0.6
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.2% more
San Francisco: 9.1
vs
Cleveland: 8.3
Home Runs (Season)
+9.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.3
2
CLE Score
3.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.8
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.1
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 11.6
9.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +147 / -178
→
+182 / -196
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SF
CLE
SF
ML
54%
87-75
49%
79-81
49%
80-83
53%
85-75
ATS
57%
93-69
62%
100-60
58%
95-68
52%
83-77
TTL
56%
89-71-2
55%
82-68-10
44%
70-90-2
46%
68-81-11
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox