ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
66-63 | Road
10
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
61-67 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 5-9 | 3.48 | 1.22 | 132.0 | 91 |
| Brady Singer | 5-11 | 4.66 | 1.44 | 125.2 | 104 |
5-9
W-L
5-11
3.48 Ldr
ERA
4.66
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.44
132.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
125.2
91
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
52%
REDS
48%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (STL)
CARDINALS
52%
Book Odds: -106
REDS
51%
Book Odds: -102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.2 (Under)
Over 9.0
44%
Under 9.0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.691
OPS
▲
.699
167
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+41.5% more
St. Louis: 14.4
vs
Cincinnati: 8.4
Hits (L5)
+37.2% more
St. Louis: 8.2
vs
Cincinnati: 5.1
Walks (L5)
+33.4% more
St. Louis: 3.8
vs
Cincinnati: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+24.8% more
St. Louis: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.0
10
CIN Score
3.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.1 / 8.2
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 10.4
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 14.4
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.8
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-106 / -102
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
80-80
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-72-5
50%
76-75-10
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