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BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

2-3-0  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 12:30 PM ET
Gtech Community Stadium

SPURSSPURS

0-2-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BRENTFORD
61%
DRAW
21%
SPURS
18%
▲ Edge: +24.90% (Tottenham Hotspur)
48% Book Odds: +109
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +284
29% Book Odds: +247
Book Implied: 47.80% / 26% / 28.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 55%
Under 2.75 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRENTFORD
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Brentford)
BrentfordBrentford (-0.5) 0 SpursSpurs (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

41.1% / 58.9%

Shots (On Goal)

26(8) / 9(4)

Corners

7 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brentford -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brentford)

Brentford By 1 goal

26.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

11.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.60
1
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
1
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.60
1
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brentford Win
46% Win Prob
A
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brentford (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim u2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Brentford vs Spurs 3 - 0
Jan 1, 2026 Brentford vs Spurs 0 - 0
Dec 6, 2025 Spurs vs Brentford 2 - 0
Feb 2, 2025 Brentford vs Spurs 0 - 2
Sep 21, 2024 Spurs vs Brentford 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +55.6% more
Brentford: 14.0 vs Spurs: 9.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Spurs: 3.0 vs Brentford: 8.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Spurs: 0.0 vs Brentford: 1.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Spurs: 3.0 vs Brentford: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tottenham Hotspur Score 1.0 0
Brentford Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Brentford (Home) vs Tottenham Hotspur (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Brentford Share: 66.7% Tottenham Hotspur Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brentford
Tottenham Hotspur
Brentford
Tottenham Hotspur
ML
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
ATS
71% 2-1-1
75% 3-1-1
14% 0-3-1
25% 1-3-1
TTL
56% 2-2
40% 2-3
78% 3-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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