Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Nottm Forest vs Leeds Nottm Forest vs Leeds

NOTTM FORESTNOTTM FOREST

1-2-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 10:00 AM ET
The City Ground

LEEDSLEEDS

2-3-0  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NOTTM FOREST
61%
DRAW
21%
LEEDS
18%
▲ Edge: +27.80% (Leeds United)
40% Book Odds: +151
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +224
32% Book Odds: +212
Book Implied: 39.80% / 30.90% / 32.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 53%
Under 2.25 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
NOTTM FOREST
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Nottm Forest)
Nottm ForestNottm Forest (-0.2) 0 LeedsLeeds (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.2% / 44.8%

Shots (On Goal)

12(2) / 11(3)

Corners

3 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Nottingham Forest -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Nottingham Forest)

Nottingham Forest By 1 goal

26.1%

Nottingham Forest By 2+ goals

36.9%

Leeds United By 1 goal

11.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.20
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.20
0
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nottingham Forest Loss
40% Win Prob
C
Sim Nottingham Forest Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nottingham Forest (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Nottingham Forest (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.3 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Nottm Forest vs Leeds 0 - 1
Feb 6, 2026 Leeds vs Nottm Forest 3 - 1
Nov 9, 2025 Nottm Forest vs Leeds 3 - 1
Apr 4, 2023 Leeds vs Nottm Forest 2 - 1
Feb 5, 2023 Nottm Forest vs Leeds 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Nottm Forest: 2.0 vs Leeds: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Leeds: 3.0 vs Nottm Forest: 6.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Leeds: 4.0 vs Nottm Forest: 2.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Leeds: 0.0 vs Nottm Forest: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Leeds United Score 1.0 1
Nottingham Forest Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Leeds United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Nottingham Forest Share: 66.7% Leeds United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
ML
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
ATS
75% 3-1-1
0% 0-4-1
0% 0-4-1
25% 1-3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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