WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
61-67 | Road
6
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
62-65 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kumar Rocker
#80 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 10-5 | 3.36 | 1.24 | 136.2 | 151 |
| Kumar Rocker | 4-9 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 116.0 | 106 |
10-5
W-L
4-9
3.36 Ldr
ERA
4.50
1.24 Ldr
WHIP
1.40
136.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
116.0
151 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
106
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
57%
RANGERS
43%
▲ Edge: +9.80% (WSH)
NATIONALS
47%
Book Odds: +111
RANGERS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
68%
Under 7.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.8%
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.8%
TEX By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5.1
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Texas
4.3
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Texas
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
WSH @ TEX
0 - 2
Aug 19, 2026
WSH @ TEX
6 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
WSH @ TEX
0 - 5
Jun 8, 2025
TEX @ WSH
4 - 2
Jun 7, 2025
TEX @ WSH
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744
▲
OPS
.713
210
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+38.0% more
Washington: 4.0
vs
Texas: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.1% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Texas: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.4% more
Washington: 9.1
vs
Texas: 7.8
Home Runs (Season)
+12.9% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Texas: 183.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.1
6
TEX Score
4.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.0
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 9.1
5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 10.7
4.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +210 / -265
→
+111 / -119
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
WSH
TEX
WSH
ML
53%
86-76
57%
92-69
57%
91-70
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
92-70
58%
93-68
61%
98-63
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
78-70-14
50%
77-78-6
55%
81-66-14
42%
65-90-6
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