ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
49-78 | Road
7
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
54-74 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeffrey Springs
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 3-11 | 6.17 | 1.48 | 108.0 | 88 |
| Seth Lugo | 5-7 | 4.59 | 1.38 | 139.1 | 108 |
3-11
W-L
5-7
6.17
ERA
Ldr 4.59
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.38
108.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 139.1
88
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 108
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
48%
ROYALS
52%
▲ Edge: +11% (ATH)
ATHLETICS
37%
Book Odds: +168
ROYALS
64%
Book Odds: -181
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 8.5
52%
Under 8.5
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
13.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.50
Kansas City
4.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.50
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
ATH @ KC
2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026
ATH @ KC
7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026
ATH @ KC
3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
ATH @ KC
5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026
KC @ ATH
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
▲
OPS
.718
194
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.6% more
Kansas City: 7.0
vs
Athletics: 5.8
Hits (L5)
+10.9% more
Kansas City: 8.6
vs
Athletics: 7.8
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Athletics: 24.5%
Errors (L5)
+79.0% more
Athletics: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.3
7
KC Score
4.4
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.8
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 5.8
6.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 13.5
18.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.6
0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +134 / -164
→
+168 / -181
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ATH
KC
ATH
ML
55%
89-72
59%
95-67
56%
90-70
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
91-70
52%
84-78
58%
93-67
50%
81-80
TTL
58%
90-64-7
54%
84-73-5
54%
83-70-7
42%
66-90-5
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