TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
62-66 | Road
6
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
76-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Scherzer
#31 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 1-5 | 6.59 | 1.46 | 41.0 | 31 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 12-5 | 2.78 | 0.91 | 129.1 | 133 |
1-5
W-L
12-5
6.59
ERA
Ldr 2.78
1.46
WHIP
Ldr 0.91
41.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 129.1
31
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 133
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
40%
RAYS
60%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
36%
Book Odds: +179
RAYS
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.7 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.3%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Tampa Bay
5.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
C
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.728
152
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5
vs
Toronto: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.7% more
Tampa Bay: 7.8
vs
Toronto: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+11.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.3
6
TB Score
5.4
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.6 / 10.9
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 6.7
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 16.4
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +183 / -224
→
+179 / -193
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58%
95-68
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
90-71
55%
90-73
49%
79-81
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-10
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…