ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
65-63 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
61-66 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 5-10 | 5.07 | 1.48 | 119.0 | 116 |
| Chase Burns | 14-2 | 2.47 | 1.09 | 131.0 | 151 |
5-10
W-L
14-2
5.07
ERA
Ldr 2.47
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.09
119.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 131.0
116
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 151
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
29%
REDS
71%
▲ Edge: +15.10% (CIN)
CARDINALS
46%
Book Odds: +120
REDS
56%
Book Odds: -128
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
STL By 1-2 runs
11.8%
STL By 3-4 runs
6.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
2.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Cincinnati
5.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Reds
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
C
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.691
OPS
▲
.699
167
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+75.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+27.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Cincinnati: 39.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+0.8%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
2.9
4
CIN Score
5.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.2 / 7.8
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.6
12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
7.1 / 14.6
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.7
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+120 / -128
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
80-80
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-72-5
50%
76-75-10
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