SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
52-74 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
61-66 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Wilkinson
#71 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wilkinson | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
| Parker Messick | 9-7 | 2.59 | 1.03 | 142.1 | 142 |
0-0
W-L
9-7
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.59
0.00 Ldr
WHIP
1.03
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 142.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 142
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
74%
GUARDIANS
26%
▲ Edge: +40.80% (SF)
GIANTS
33%
Book Odds: +201
GUARDIANS
69%
Book Odds: -217
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 7.5
47%
Under 7.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
18.9%
SF By 3-4 runs
19.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
11.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
2.1
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
7
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants
Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
A
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
SF @ CLE
2 - 5
Aug 19, 2026
SF @ CLE
1 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
SF @ CLE
1 - 8
Jun 19, 2025
CLE @ SF
1 - 2
Jun 18, 2025
CLE @ SF
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.706
▲
OPS
.696
178
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+85.6% more
San Francisco: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+25.1% more
San Francisco: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 3.4
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.7
Home Runs (Season)
+9.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.8
1
CLE Score
2.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.2
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 6.2
8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 12.8
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.5
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +172 / -189
→
+201 / -217
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SF
CLE
SF
ML
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
49%
80-82
53%
85-75
ATS
58%
93-68
62%
100-60
59%
95-67
52%
83-77
TTL
55%
88-71-2
55%
82-68-10
43%
69-90-2
46%
68-81-11
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