MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
64-64 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
70-58 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 13-7 | 3.43 | 1.17 | 170.2 | 130 |
| Aaron Nola | 4-9 | 5.33 | 1.45 | 130.0 | 138 |
13-7
W-L
4-9
3.43 Ldr
ERA
5.33
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
170.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
130.0
130
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 138
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
45%
PHILLIES
55%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (MIA)
MARLINS
43%
Book Odds: +131
PHILLIES
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 9.0
58%
Under 9.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.1%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.7
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.5
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.4% more
Philadelphia: 8.8
vs
Miami: 6.4
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
Miami: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+18.7% more
Philadelphia: 10.1
vs
Miami: 8.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.7
1
PHI Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 8.5
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.4
10.0 / 1.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 13.1
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.4 / 5.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -127
→
+131 / -140
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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