CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
66-60 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
74-54 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clay Holmes
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Newcomb | 1-3 | 2.51 | 1.10 | 68.0 | 64 |
| Clay Holmes | 5-5 | 2.56 | 1.07 | 63.1 | 49 |
1-3
W-L
5-5
2.51 Ldr
ERA
2.56
1.10
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
68.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
63.1
64 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
49
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
36%
CUBS
64%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (CHC)
WHITE SOX
43%
Book Odds: +135
CUBS
59%
Book Odds: -145
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
70%
Under 7.5
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.1
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Chicago
5.6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
CHW @ CHC
3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
CHW @ CHC
3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
CHW @ CHC
5 - 7
May 17, 2026
CHC @ CHW
8 - 9
May 16, 2026
CHC @ CHW
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Chicago
CHC
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.826
▲
OPS
.374
1
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
Chicago: 2.0
vs
Chicago: 1.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+45.2%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Walks (L5)
+30.1% more
Chicago: 5.0
vs
Chicago: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.1
3
CHC Score
5.6
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.8
2.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.4
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 15.8
3.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.0
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +332 / -418
→
+135 / -145
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 10
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CHW
CHC
CHW
ML
58%
93-68
49%
81-86
51%
82-79
56%
94-73
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
99-68
47%
75-85-1
56%
93-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
58%
96-69-2
46%
72-83-6
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
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