ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
74-53 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
63-65 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Smith-Shawver
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 0-0 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Taj Bradley | 9-5 | 3.98 | 1.29 | 135.2 | 151 |
0-0
W-L
9-5
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.98
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 135.2
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 151
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
54%
TWINS
46%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (ATL)
BRAVES
52%
Book Odds: -108
TWINS
50%
Book Odds: +100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.2 (Under)
Over 9.0
46%
Under 9.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.1
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
3.7
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ATL @ MIN
4 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ATL @ MIN
1 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
ATL @ MIN
2 - 4
Apr 20, 2025
MIN @ ATL
2 - 6
Apr 19, 2025
MIN @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.757
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.0%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Minnesota: 40.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.7%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.1
4
MIN Score
3.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.6
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.2
14.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 11.1
12.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.5
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -121 / +101
→
-108 / +100
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATL
MIN
ATL
ML
52%
84-78
46%
77-90
50%
80-81
54%
90-78
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
96-71
59%
95-66
52%
87-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
83-73-11
53%
80-72-9
49%
76-80-11
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